Back in September, Ariana Grande released her 2026 Eternal Sunshine Tour. I waited patiently in line before the lockdown software kicked me out of the queue. The cruelty of Examsoft left me with only one option: to purchase a resale ticket.

The resale tickets for the July 22 Boston show is currently at a recent high of $634. For comparison, the average price for the Taylor Swift Eras Tour on the secondary resale market was a staggering $3,801. However, data compiled from the Phoenix, Dallas, Tampa, Houston and Atlanta shows found that 75% of the tickets had price drops 3-5 days before the concert. So when is the best time to buy tickets?

Firstly, you should determine your true reservation value of the ticket, including the cost of FOMO. Since waiting another day faces risks of less available tickets and price hikes, each additional day erodes your reservation value by, say, $5.

Sellers do not lower prices linearly. Past data suggests 4 price drop windows: one month before the show, 3-5 days out, 48 to 24 hours out, and the last few hours. Taylor Swift’s three Miami shows last year (October 18-20) followed this pattern. The cheapest ticket prices dropped from $1,527 to $1,200 between September 11th and October 1st. Prices stagnated for a while before dropping to $1,059 three days prior. Twenty-four hours before the first concert, they plummeted to $705.

The buyer’s strategy is to wait for the price to be less than or equal to your reservation threshold. If the first drop interval is not within your budget, you should estimate the probability of the next price drop and test the expected payoff again. For the Miami shows, this strategy held for the first three major price drops. However, the predicted 4th price drop, during the last few hours, did not occur. Instead, on October 19th right before the last show, the cheapest tickets actually increased to $973, as last-minute buyers bidded up the price. This “bidding war” occurred for 50% of Taylor Swift’s shows.

If you do find yourself in a bidding war, our previous strategy no longer applies. Instead, auction theory tells us that the dominant strategy is to bid your true reservation value, and only snipe towards the end if you can afford to. Bidding more than twice is not optimal as it can drive up the price even more.

For other Arianators who are still grieving their missing ticket, check the resale values next year on June 22, July 17 and July 21, and buy as soon as the price is under your threshold. By understanding the odds, they will always be in your favor.



Works Cited:
Garfinkle, Maddie. “How Much Are Tickets for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in Miami?” Rolling Stone, 18 Oct. 2024, www.rollingstone.com/product-recommendations/lifestyle/where-to-buy-taylor-swift-miami-eras-tour-tickets-1235135406/.
Hanson, Keith. "When Is the Best Time to Buy Taylor Swift Eras Tickets?" RateYourSeats.com, 3 May 2023, www.rateyourseats.com/blog/cheap_seats/when-is-the-best-time-to-buy-taylor-swift-eras-tickets.
Levy, Matt. "When Is the Best Time to Buy Taylor Swift Tickets?" AOL.com, 3 Oct. 2024, www.aol.com/much-tickets-taylor-swift-eras-183214298.html.
Lucas, Amelia. “Taylor Swift Eras Tour Tickets Are Averaging More Than $3,800 on Resale Market.” Business Insider, 11 Aug. 2023, www.businessinsider.com/resale-price-taylor-swift-eras-tour-reputation-ticket-pitchfork-report-2023-8.